Today is one of the best days of the year: the Opening Day of Major League Baseball. I can’t say that everyone is undefeated today, thanks to a small handful of games that preceded the league-wide opening, but at least no one has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet (well, maybe the Astros). So as hope springs eternal, and all those other clichés, let’s do some predictions.

I do MLB predictions every year, and despite considering myself a very knowledgeable fan overall, I’m usually wrong about a vast majority of my guesses. But in the past two years, I did correctly predict three of the four World Series teams (the sole miss being last year’s Red Sox, about whom I was way off). So once again, I’ll give it a go, in hopes that I can find one kernel of accuracy to redeem the wrongness that will run wild through the rest of this post.

One semi-notable disclosure: my favorite team is the Atlanta Braves. Some people are overly optimistic about their own team; my fandom is having the opposite result this year.

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AL East

1. Boston Red Sox

I toyed with bumping them down a spot, but after underestimating Boston last year, I wasn’t willing to start this by shitting on the defending world champs. I do think their rotation could have issues, as all of their starting pitchers have had a lot of variance in results over the past few years. But I love their bullpen, and their lineup is loaded. I’m especially excited to see what a full season of Xander Bogaerts as a starter looks like.

2. Tampa Bay Rays

The problem with predicting TB this year is the looming possibility that they could conceivably deal David Price before the trade deadline. My guess is that they’re so strongly in the hunt that they decide to hold onto him, but it has to be tempting to make sure they get some assets for him. But there’s a young core of pitchers behind Price, and a lineup with hope for real improvement thanks to a full season of Wil Myers. Throw in Joe Maddon, the best manager in baseball, and I’ll be shocked if the Rays aren’t in the hunt.

3. Baltimore Orioles

The O’s are another tough pick for me; I like so much of their lineup, but find that rotation hard to believe in. I admit to some bias against Ubaldo Jimenez, but I just don’t see another strong year from him, and there’s not another strong ace candidate yet. Kevin Gausman could work into the rotation soon enough, and Dylan Bundy might be ready for the second half of the season; either or both could change things in a hurry.

4. New York Yankees

I can see real upside for this Yankees team, enough that a playoff run wouldn’t surprise me. The rotation looks like a budding strength if they can stay healthy, especially if Michael Pineda can give them anything. Their outfield is fun after adding Ellsbury and Beltran, and catcher Brian McCann is perfect for that park. But the rest of that infield … ouch. Who knows what, if anything, they’ll get from the fading Mark Teixeira and the fading faster Derek Jeter. And I can’t get too excited about any team counting heavily on the health of Brian Roberts and the consistency of Kelly Johnson. This could be a really good team, but only if everything breaks nearly perfectly.

5. Toronto Blue Jays

Honestly, I just don’t love the look of this group. Outside of the great power duo of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, there’s really no one on this roster I have much faith in. There are guys I like, such as Adam Lind and R.A. Dickey, and guys I want to like, such as Brandon Morrow and Brett Lawrie. But hardly any guys I think I would want to count on.

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AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers

I liked them a lot more before they dealt Doug Fister for pennies on the dollar, and especially before they lost the outstanding defense of Jose Iglesias to injury. But they still have the game’s best pure hitter, and a solid lineup around him. I hadn’t been a big Ian Kinsler fan, but I actually think he’ll have a strong first season in Detroit, and I am a big fan of Drew Smyly in the rotation. The Tigers may only be a 90-win team this season, but I think that’s still enough in the Central.

2. Kansas City Royals

Eric Hosmer looks like he’s on the cusp of stardom after a very strong second half last season. I like him to lead a strong lineup this year, boosted by improvement from Mike Moustakas and another favorite of mine, Salvador Perez. The rotation is more in question. James Shields looked last year like the ace that KC paid a heavy price for, and might again this year. And I’m a huge fan of youngster Yordano Ventura. Otherwise, I’m just not sure.

3. Chicago White Sox

This may be the big surprise team of 2014. I originally went conservative in picking them fourth, but two through four are fairly interchangeable to me in the Central, and I can plausibly seeing them winning the division if things break right for them and wrong for Detroit. The lineup is mostly young, but a lot of potential fun: I really like Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, and Avisail Garcia, and have an eye on eventual third baseman Matt Davidson. The pitching, I’m not so sure. Chris Sale is a top-flight ace, and I think they can get solid years out of Jose Quintana and John Danks, but I don’t know. I also see some possible bullpen issues. The White Sox look like a high variance team that could disappoint or become a whole lot of fun.

4. Cleveland Indians

I wasn’t nearly high enough on Cleveland last year, and I’m probably not this year either. And again, my trepidation involves the pitching. I love most of the lineup, especially Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis, even though I’m not sure about the outfield production. But the bullpen could be shaky, and I just can’t love the rotation. There are solid pieces there, but Danny Salazar is the only real chance for a star, and that’s a lot of pressure on a guy entering his first full season. If Trevor Bauer ever amounts to anything, that’d help.

5. Minnesota Twins

Putting Minnesota fifth is really the only easy call in the Central. The pitching is an absolute disaster, and the most fun possibility for the team this year was lost when mega-power prospect Miguel Sano, who probably would have gotten regular playing time at some point this season, was lost to Tommy John surgery. Joe Mauer will do what he can to keep the team respectable, and a couple outfield youngsters bear watching in Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks, who’ll hope for more success than in his disastrous rookie season. A bounceback from Josh Willingham wouldn’t surprise me either. But for the most part, the Twins are just killing time until one of baseball’s best farm systems starts to reach the majors. Following Byron Buxton on Minnesota’s Double-A team should be more fun than following the Twins themselves this year.

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AL West

1. Oakland Athletics

I’m already hating picking the AL West this year. After attrition hit last year’s top teams, the division looks like a guessing game for who’ll be healthy enough to win. My best guess is Oakland. Losing Jarrod Parker hurt, but there’s enough pitching there that I think they can get by. It seems like asking a lot for Josh Donaldson to replicate last season’s brilliance, but if he can come close, I think there’s a solid lineup here. I still think the best is yet to come for Yoenis Cespedes.

2. Texas Rangers

I’m not sure any contender has a less proven Opening Day rotation than the Rangers, but at least help is on the way. Yu Darvish will be back soon and could win the Cy Young, and Matt Harrison could be an important addition. In the meantime, I’m intrigued to see what Tanner Scheppers does. Also intrigued to see how the Texas lineup looks; will Prince Fielder regain his power in Arlington?  Logic suggests it’s the perfect place, but a part of me thinks the dominant Prince isn’t coming back. But I do like the Texas outfield, and they still have an MVP candidate in Adrian Beltre. If only one of my favorite young players, Jurickson Profar, weren’t going to miss the first half of the season.

3. Los Angles Angels of Anaheim

The Angels seem to now be a trendy pick to fill the power vacuum in the West, but I just can’t believe in this team again until I actually see it. The lineup could be great, led by baseball’s best all-around player in Mike Trout, but we still face the now-annual question about how much Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton have left. Kole Calhoun is a big breakout candidate, and I still can’t fully believe that the 2011 World Series David Freese is gone forever (though he probably is). The bigger problem is the rotation. Jered Weaver still seems like he could be on the edge of a letdown, though he proved me wrong last season. I do have high hopes for Tyler Skaggs, though, a great pure talent if LA can capitalize on it.

4. Seattle Mariners

The pieces seem to slowly be coming together for Seattle, and I think they could be on the verge of a breakout. Like the White Sox, however, I just can’t quite call it yet. They’re starting with a couple injuries in the rotation, but once everyone is healthy, it could be one of the most intriguing rotations in the majors. The young trio of Ramirez, Paxton, and Walker might be a year away from being consistent difference makers, but they have upside, especially Walker, and their progression will be an exciting storyline this year. The overpay for Robinson Cano gives them a legitimate bat to build their lineup around, and there are signs of hope there. Justin Smoak showed some signs of a very-post-hype breakthrough at times last year, and perhaps more lineup stability can help him take that next step. Production from newer additions Brad Miller and Mike Zunino could make Seattle a sleeper playoff contender.

5. Houston Astros

Pretty much everything I said about Minnesota also goes for Houston. This is another team with a disaster of a pitching staff that’s just waiting on prospects to arrive. But the Astros are at least a little closer; we should see Jon Singleton (depending on his addiction issues) and the exciting George Springer sometime this season, and maybe Mark Appel late in the year if all goes well. In the meantime, Dexter Fowler and Jose Altuve can do their best to keep things respectable; I have no faith in Scott Feldman.

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AL Wild Cards

1. Tampa Bay Rays

2. Texas Rangers

The Wild Cards should be in play until late in the season, since I think 12 of the 15 AL teams could at least theoretically get in the mix if things broke nearly perfectly for them. Obviously most of them won’t get those breaks, but it’s harder to eliminate teams from possible contention right now than it is in the NL. My guess is that the Rays stick in the driver’s seat most of the season, and Texas makes a second-half charge after getting healthy.

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NL East

1. Washington Nationals

It feels a little like bad déjà vu to say this, but on paper, the Nats again might be the most complete team in baseball. Obviously that wasn’t enough last year, but as a Braves fan, I can’t bring myself to realistically hope for the same bad breaks to repeat themselves. The lineup should be strong or solid at every position, and I think this is the year when Bryce Harper has his first serious MVP campaign. The rotation could be as good as any in baseball, with three pitchers who could possibly become Cy Young contenders, before you even get to the theft of Doug Fister. They’ve also built a bullpen full of options, and one of the stronger benches in the league, too. It’s hard to imagine Washington not taking its place as a goliath of baseball.

2. Atlanta Braves

I wish this were just a small demotion from division winner to top Wild Card team, like the Braves were two years ago when Washington won the East. But as you’ll see, I have my team missing the playoffs this year. I was feeling pretty bullish on Atlanta going into Spring Training, but after two really good young pitchers, Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, both went down with their second Tommy John surgery each, it just feels harder to be optimistic. Atlanta stopped the bleeding by signing Ervin Santana to an expensive one-year deal, but who knows which version of him shows up, and the Braves will still be stuck counting on weak younger options like David Hale or iffy veteran retreads like Aaron Harang and Gavin Floyd. Somehow, the lineup has an even higher variance, as Atlanta probably leads the league in hot-and-cold hitters; good luck to anyone trying to project Evan Gattis, either Upton, Jason Heyward, Chris Johnson, etc. this year. The bullpen is still a major strength, and it takes very little imagination to see how this team could still be a top-flight contender – but right now, I just don’t have a good feeling.

3. New York Mets

Another team where things are slowly coming together; if Matt Harvey weren’t going to miss most or all of the season, you could pencil the Mets in as a sleeper potential Wild Card contender. I still kinda like what’s left of the rotation, particularly the addition of Bartolo Colon and the exciting talent of Zach Wheeler. The lineup around David Wright is improving, though I never know what to think of Ike Davis. Travis d”Arnaud could be a fun one to watch.

4. Miami Marlins

There’s not a ton of logic to this pick, as Miami still has holes and question marks everywhere; this is a team that might rely on Rafael Furcal to play an important role. In 2014. But Giancarlo Stanton is healthy, and paired with a couple intriguing outfield mates in youngsters Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna. Much of the pitching will be bad, but Jose Fernandez is as exciting as baseball gets, and I like Nate Eovaldi to become a capable #2.

5. Philadelphia Phillies

I’ve always hated Philly, so I won’t pretend that I’m not looking for an excuse to perhaps overly shit on them; putting them below the Marlins is maybe a low blow. But I feel like the implosion potential is off the charts here. There’s already been Jimmy Rollins drama, and I can’t imagine they make it through the whole season without that blowing up (same goes with Jonathan Papelbon). Then there’s the now-yearly question of how much more they can get from Chase Utley (maybe a decent amount) and Ryan Howard (not much). Domonic Brown may help save the lineup, but given how much of his offensive production in 2013 came in one isolated stretch, I can’t count on it. I still like Cliff Lee well enough, but I have a feeling Cole Hamels won’t make it through a full year of starts.

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NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals

The defending NL champs still look loaded to me, maybe even moreso than last year. Their pitching is crazy good, deep enough that they can use attractive rotation options like Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal to instead form a dominant bullpen. The lineup looks strong from 1-8, and I like new regulars Kolten Wong and Jhonny Peralta. (I’ve actually been wary of Peralta most of his career, but compared to the black hole on offense that StL got out of its shortstops last year, he’ll look good.) And all that depth comes before the possibility of calling up Oscar Taveras this year, one of the best reinforcements any team will have at its disposal.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitt lost a little bit of production from last year’s team, but I still like the look of this group a lot. Reigning MVP Andrew McCutcheon leads a solid lineup that could get better when Gregory Polanco arrives in the majors. I’m not sure Francisco Liriano will duplicate his surprise brilliance from last year, but the Pirates might need less from him anyway as Gerrit Cole comes into his own; Jameson Taillon will also arrive to help at some point. Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli form one of my favorite late-inning bullpen duos. I think Pitt will get its second-straight playoff berth.

3. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are going to be the playoff cut that I don’t fully believe myself. Like Atlanta, I just don’t have a good feeling about their prospects. The rotation could be among the NL’s best if healthy, but I don’t think it will stay uninjured enough. The bullpen, so recently dominant, now looks like a question mark, at least early in the season. The lineup has a lot of strengths, but the infield production has declined offensively, and I don’t know if Billy Hamilton is going to live up to his considerable hype yet. He could challenge for 100 steals even if he hits sub-.250, which is where I have him, but I don’t think he’ll be on base enough to help solve the lack of a leadoff option for the Reds.

4. Milwaukee Brewers

I wanted to bump Milwaukee down a spot, just because I feel little positive momentum for this team, but realized I was being unfair. Ryan Braun has turned into a villain in the mass media, but that’s obscured that he’s still a superstar. Obviously he’ll be watched closely to see if he looks different “post-steroids,” but I feel a big eff-you season coming from him. I’m finally going to stop doubting Carlos Gomez, at least for a year, and the rotation could be quietly solid, even with no true ace. I still see a lot of likely holes here, though.

5. Chicago Cubs

The good news is that I think the big Anthony Rizzo breakout season is finally here. The bad news is just about everything else. I kid, but only slightly. It’s hard to believe in Starlin Castro after his regression, and I’m losing faith in Jeff Samardzija developing the consistency to go with his considerable talent. I will be interested to see if Mike Olt can find some consistent bats, because I did like him a lot in the minors just a couple years ago. Otherwise, I’m looking forward to seeing Javier Baez and Kris Bryant make it up.

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NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

The injury to Clayton Kershaw may yet add a little drama to this division; the current prognosis has him missing very little time, but back injuries can be difficult and lingering. But if any team could weather the absence of the best pitcher on the planet, it would be the Dodgers. Not only does LA have the luxury of following Kershaw with Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu, the team also boasts an embarrassingly deep bullpen and a strong lineup. If Matt Kemp can just throw some shades of 2011 to the mix, I don’t know how LA loses. There promises to be some continuing drama about Yasiel Puig’s maturity, but I hate such stories so much that I tend to dismiss them. Second base is a weakness, but a minor one for such a well-balanced team.

2. San Diego Padres

This is my big “surprise” pick, and it’s not just about last night’s impressive debut. But certainly, Andrew Cashner is a major factor, as I like him to join the ranks of acehood this season. San Diego will require major injury luck, especially among its pitchers; the Padres could boast a nice top three in Cashner, Ian Kennedy and Josh Johnson, but all have notable injury pasts; I’m also high on Tyson Ross, who broke out down the stretch last season. The lineup is quietly loaded with solid contributors. Chase Headley is a bounceback pick of mine, Everth Cabrera was brilliant before his suspension last year, and Jedd Gyorko is a developing thumper at second. I think this is a team that’s really going to surprise people.

3. San Francisco Giants

The Giants are a playoff team in many predictions, but I’m not feeling it this year. I find myself not loving about half their lineup, or 60% of their rotation. (No complaints about the bullpen, for what it’s worth, Giants fans!) But I just don’t think Lincecum and Hudson are going to show much this season, and Vogelsong already looked like a one-year wonder.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

I was higher on the D-Backs before Patrick Corbin went down; unlike a lot of people, I actually believed he was for real. I still almost put Arizona higher, because they could make up for the loss of Corbin with Archie Bradley, whenever he arrives. It’s impossible not to like Paul Goldschmidt, and the lineup around him is solid, particularly if Miguel Montero rebounds. This is a hard team for me to predict; I can see Arizona disappointing or making the playoffs.

5. Colorado Rockies

It would be great if the Rockies could finally make it through one season without major injuries, because I would really love to see what they’d look like with that lineup staying healthy and gelling. They still wouldn’t have the pitching to make any playoff run, but at least they’d be a really fun mediocre team. I’m also rooting for a healthy Brett Anderson, which is almost an oxymoron at this point, but I loved him when he was younger. I also watched Jonathan Gray pitch in college a couple times and really enjoyed it, so I’ll be interested to see if he can get a late call-up.

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NL Wild Cards

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

2. San Diego Padres

I’m not sure these two teams have ever been in the postseason at the same time, but what the hell; a lot of my picks have been pretty conservative, so San Diego is at least a change of pace by going out on a limb. The big snubs here, at least to me, are the Braves and Reds, either or both of which could pretty easily be playoff teams with less luck than the Padres (or maybe even the Pirates) will need. The Giants and Diamondbacks could challenge for a spot, as well.

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AL Most Valuable Player

5. Dustin Pedroia

4. Evan Longoria

3. Miguel Cabrera

2. Adrian Beltre

1. Mike Trout

Honestly, I just wanted to break up the duopoly of Cabrera and Trout that has developed at the top the past couple of years. But Beltre has a lot of cumulative momentum, as his national appreciation has risen steadily the past few years. Another season of 30-100-.300 with strong defense might put him higher than ever. I think Cabrera is due for a slight slip, as brilliant as he still is. Longoria could be the sleeper to me, with possibly better lineup protection than he’s ever had. Pedroia is the kind of guy who’s valuable anyway, but gets more votes for leading a good team. But ultimately, I think it’s finally Trout’s year.

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NL Most Valuable Player

5. Troy Tulowitzki

4. Paul Goldschmidt

3. Andrew McCutchen

2. Bryce Harper

1. Yadier Molina

Tulo is admittedly likely a pipedream; he feels like a perpetual “almost” candidate, thanks to never staying healthy enough or being on a good enough team to get the recognition he deserves, but I always put him on my list anyway. Goldschmidt was a breakout star, and will easily get attention with flashy counting stats. McCutchen is crazy good; I just almost never pick last year’s winner. Harper is ready to come into his own, I think; I have him putting up 35+ HRs for the best team in the NL, which will have him high on a lot of ballots. But like Beltre in the AL, I like Yadier in part for his cumulative momentum. There are enough people who want to see him gain greater recognition that strong numbers on a great team could do the trick this year.

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AL Cy Young

3. Justin Verlander

2. Yu Darvish

1. Chris Sale

Verlander was really good last year by most normal human measures, but by his loftier standards, had something of a down year. I expect him to increase his dominance this time around. Yu is a popular pick, and not without reason; he’s electric and as fun to watch as anyone. But I’m going with my man Chris Sale. Everyone always predicts he’ll regress and/or get hurt, but the actual results have been dominant. If the White Sox surprise some people to help him get more exposure, then I think he might break through.

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NL Cy Young

3. Jose Fernandez

2. Clayton Kershaw

1. Stephen Strasburg

I originally had Madison Bumgarner in third, but I loved Jose Fernandez so much last year that I wanted to make room for him. Since some voters are overly reluctant to vote for players on bad teams, I don’t like his chances to win, but he could be right there. Kershaw is on the DL with an injury that is being called not serious but has a tendency to linger; if ever he were to be human enough to let someone else win, this could be the year. But having him lower than second would still feel like blasphemy until proven. I’m not certain Strasburg will even be the best pitcher on his team, much less the NL; Jordan Zimmerman could easily claim that mantle. But like Harper, I see another Washington superstar finally starting to put it all together.

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AL Rookie of the Year

3. Jose Abreu

2. Masahiro Tanaka

1. Xander Bogaerts

The AL ROY race could be pretty loaded this year; I couldn’t even make room for Yordano Ventura, among others. Abreu has the potential to really rake in Chicago this year. Tanaka is likely the most polished of the bunch, though there’s still a voter bias against Japanese imports among some ROY voters. So I’ll stick with Bogaerts, an exciting young talent who’ll probably be in a lot of highlight reels this season.

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NL Rookie of the Year

3. Billy Hamilton

2. Travis d’Arnaud

1. Archie Bradley

I’m less enamored with the NL crop of likely rookies, but hopefully someone like Noah Syndergaard or Javier Baez or even Kolten Wong can spice things up. I have serious doubts about Hamilton’s ability to hit major league pitching, but the steals numbers will draw voters anyway. D’Arnaud isn’t a polished product, but he’s a catcher who could pop 20 homers. Bradley, though, looks like the crème de la crème. Provided Arizona gives him enough starts, I think he’ll shine in a big way.

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AL Manager of the Year

I never put much thought into this award, so I’ll just give it to Joe Maddon like I always do.

NL Manager of the Year

I guess given my Padres pick, Bud Black makes the most sense.

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AL Comeback Player of the Year

Grady Sizemore. Not sure I fully believe it yet, but come on, the poor guy is due.

NL Comeback Player of the Year

Dan Uggla Matt Kemp. Remember how fun his 2011 was? Yeah, let’s see that again, please.

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2014 Playoffs

ALCS: Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox

NLCS: Washington Nationals over St. Louis Cardinals

WORLD SERIES: Tampa Bay Rays 4, Washington Nationals 3

You’ve already seen my breakdowns of these teams. For the NL, I think the Nats and Cards are the deepest, most balanced teams, and I give an impossibly slight edge to Washington. I think Boston, Detroit, and Texas are perhaps the most dangerous AL teams, but the playoffs are as much about what team gets hot at the right time, and the Rays have the look of a team that could go on a big run and (mildly) surprise us all.